Steve Makinen Breaks Down 2026 NFL Preseason Betting Trends From Decades of Data

Steve Makinen of VSiN compiled historical NFL preseason game logs and betting records to map out team-by-team trends ahead of the 2026 preseason, and the resulting report focuses on straight-up and against-the-spread results, home and road splits, sequences following wins or losses, plus favorite and underdog situations across multiple franchises. Observers note that Makinen drew from extensive archives to isolate patterns that have held over recent years, while the analysis accounts for the structural differences that separate preseason betting from regular-season action, particularly the widespread practice of resting starters once rotations reach later quarters.

Core Records and Recent Performance Snapshots

Data indicates the Chicago Bears have posted strong straight-up and against-the-spread marks in recent preseasons, a trend Makinen highlighted when reviewing the franchise’s historical logs. Other teams show varying consistency, with some clubs maintaining positive records only in specific contexts such as home games or after a prior loss. Researchers who track these figures emphasize that preseason outcomes often hinge on roster depth rather than star availability, which alters how bettors interpret early results compared with September-through-January contests.

Home and Road Splits Across the League

Historical splits reveal that certain franchises perform differently depending on venue during the exhibition schedule. Some teams compile better against-the-spread numbers on the road, where reduced crowd pressure and adjusted travel routines can influence preparation, while others maintain stronger marks at home where familiarity with facilities and coaching staff routines remains intact. Makinen’s review isolates these venue-based tendencies so that patterns become visible when bettors evaluate matchups involving multiple teams simultaneously.

Trends Following Wins and Losses

Sequences after victories or defeats form another focal point in the analysis. Certain squads exhibit improved or diminished results in the immediate next preseason outing, a pattern that can shift based on whether starters remain in the lineup or yield to backups. Those who have studied the data observe that momentum effects appear muted once coaching staffs begin emphasizing evaluation over scoreboard results, yet measurable edges still surface when records are filtered by prior outcome.

Favorite and Underdog Angles

Makinen also catalogued performance when teams entered as favorites or underdogs. Some franchises cover the spread at higher rates when installed as underdogs, while others show reliability when favored, especially in home settings. These angles gain additional weight because preseason point spreads tend to reflect regular-season perceptions more than current roster health, creating discrepancies that historical logs help quantify.

How Preseason Betting Differs From Regular Season Play

Resting starters constitutes the most cited distinction between preseason and regular-season betting environments. Once a team secures its desired evaluation period, playing time for key personnel declines sharply, which in turn affects scoring margins and total points. Analysts reviewing Makinen’s findings note that this dynamic produces wider variance in results compared with the regular season, where lineups remain closer to full strength for longer stretches. Additional factors include limited practice time before the first exhibition game and the emphasis on injury prevention over competitive outcomes, both of which appear consistently across the studied seasons.

According to the VSiN report, these situational trends hold across multiple franchises and provide a framework for evaluating 2026 matchups without assuming the same dynamics will translate directly into the regular season. The analysis remains confined to exhibition games, where roster experimentation and coaching priorities create conditions that differ markedly from those encountered once the regular schedule begins.

Conclusion

Makinen’s aggregation of historical logs supplies a structured view of preseason betting tendencies that spans overall records, venue splits, post-win and post-loss sequences, and favorite-underdog scenarios. The report underscores how resting starters and evaluation priorities reshape the statistical landscape each August, offering bettors a reference point grounded in past performance rather than assumptions carried over from regular-season data.