EKG Analysis Projects Record US Sports Betting for 2026 FIFA World Cup

Research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming has released new projections that position the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the largest sports betting event in US history. The base-case forecast reaches $2.82 billion in online wagering, nearly three times the $900 million to $1 billion range estimated for the 2022 tournament. The full projection spans from $2.32 billion at the low end to $4.33 billion at the high end, according to the analysis.

Multiple structural changes underpin these figures. The tournament expands to 48 teams from the previous 32, which increases the total number of matches and extends the overall schedule. Several games will take place at venues inside the United States, while additional states are expected to complete legalization processes before the event begins in June 2026. Analysts also factor in the possibility of strong results from the US national team, which could drive further domestic interest.

Key Drivers Behind the Forecast

The combination of more matches, broader legal availability, and home-soil games creates overlapping sources of growth. Each additional state that launches regulated online sportsbooks adds new customers and new handle volume. The presence of US-hosted matches tends to increase media coverage and casual participation, while a competitive American squad often correlates with higher betting activity across major operators.

Market concentration remains consistent with recent patterns. DraftKings and FanDuel are projected to capture roughly 70 percent of the total handle generated during the tournament. This share reflects their established user bases, brand recognition, and promotional resources that have characterized earlier high-profile events.

Comparison With Prior Tournaments

The 2022 World Cup generated between $900 million and $1 billion in US online handle under a more limited regulatory footprint. Since then, several states have moved from sports betting legislation to full market launch, and the 2026 edition will feature significantly more games. These differences account for the substantial increase in the central forecast. Observers note that the upper end of the range would require both favorable regulatory outcomes and elevated engagement from American bettors.

Timing also plays a role. The 2026 tournament runs across June and July, overlapping with typical summer betting patterns and avoiding direct competition with the NFL season. This calendar placement allows operators to focus marketing efforts on a single major global property without splitting attention across overlapping domestic leagues.

Implications for Operators and State Markets

States that launch online sportsbooks in the next two years stand to capture a meaningful portion of the projected volume. Existing markets will likely see elevated activity as national attention turns to the expanded field and the games hosted domestically. The 70 percent combined share attributed to DraftKings and FanDuel leaves room for regional operators and newer entrants, particularly in states that open closer to the tournament date.

Data from the analysis shows that handle ranges widen when regulatory and performance variables remain uncertain. The gap between the $2.32 billion low and $4.33 billion high reflects different assumptions about the pace of state-by-state legalization and the depth of US team advancement through the bracket.

Conclusion

The EKG projection establishes a clear benchmark for the scale of online sports betting activity expected during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. With the base case at $2.82 billion and a potential range extending to $4.33 billion, the event is positioned to surpass all previous US sports betting milestones. The outcome will depend on continued state-level regulatory progress, the number of matches played on American soil, and the performance trajectory of the host nation's team. The full analysis provides detailed scenario modeling that operators and regulators can use to prepare for the anticipated surge in wagering activity.